S&P 500 Could Fall 40%

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Friday, March 22, 2019: Market Close

“Stock investors should heed the warning emanating from the bond market, says at least one hedge-fund manager, as the yield curve staged a stunning inversion Friday.

‘I think people are going to be surprised where the S&P 500 is trading at the end of the year. We’re going at least for a 40% decline from the S&P’s top,’ Otavio Costa, a macro analyst at Crescat Capital, a hedge fund that oversees $52 million, told MarketWatch in an interview.

The analyst of the investment firm, says the inversion of the yield curve, where short-dated yields rise above their longer-dated peers, signals an ignominious end to a 10-year bull run for the S&P 500 index, which bottomed in March of 2009 but has mounted a record-long rally, by some measures, since that point.

In particular, Costa said the growing number of inversions in yield spreads across Treasury maturities suggested a bear-market for equities was at hand, in the face of a darkening global growth picture.” (Read the full article on MarketWatch  here.)

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